A Fossil-Smart Future – The Long Game: What Won’t Change Quickly

“Some transitions takes decades, and don’t align with election cycles”

Not every part of the economy can move away from fossil fuels at the same pace. Some sectors rely on fuels that are energy-dense, reliable, and have chemical properties that alternatives cannot yet match at scale. A credible transition needs to acknowledge this reality, rather than pretend it can be wished away.

Aviation is a clear example. Long-haul aircraft require energy-dense fuels that batteries cannot currently provide. Sustainable aviation fuels and synthetic fuels show promise, but supply is limited, costs are high, and production will take years to scale. Aviation emissions can be reduced over time, but they are unlikely to disappear quickly.

Shipping faces similar constraints. Large vessels need reliable, high-energy fuels over long distances. Alternative fuels such as ammonia and methanol are being trialled, but infrastructure, safety and supply chains are still developing. Progress will be gradual, not rapid.

Defence is another sector where fossil-fuel dependence will persist. Military capability depends on fuel availability, resilience and logistics under extreme conditions. While efficiency improvements and limited substitution are possible, expecting rapid decarbonisation here misunderstands the role energy plays in national security.

Certain chemicals and pharmaceuticals also rely on fossil fuels as feedstocks, not just as energy sources. These uses are essential to modern life and will continue even as fuel combustion is reduced elsewhere.

Recognising these limits is not an excuse for inaction. It is a way to preserve credibility. Pretending that every sector can decarbonise on the same timeline undermines public trust and weakens serious planning.

The long game is about investment in research and development, synthetic fuels, advanced biofuels, and new industrial processes — knowing that results will come slowly. It is also about protecting essential uses while reducing fossil-fuel consumption where alternatives already exist.

Not every part of the economy can move away from fossil fuels at the same pace. Some sectors rely on fuels that are energy-dense, reliable, and have chemical properties that alternatives cannot yet match at scale. A credible transition needs to acknowledge this reality, rather than pretend it can be ignored.