Smoke Signals and Red Flags: Reading the Warning Signs Early.

“Stay alert. One misstep and the whole train’s off track”

Railway Safety Poster

Every journey faces uncertainty – but it’s rarely the sharp corner or broken track that derails progress – it’s the missed signal, the warning ignored, or the red flag brushed aside. Projects, and life, are no different. Just like the engineer watching for smoke rising in the distance or an unexpected signal change ahead, project teams must learn to read the subtle signs that risk is approaching. In this post, we explore how recognising early indicators can mean the difference between staying on track and derailing altogether.

The train’s rhythm was steady, its destination clear: a wedding in Edinburgh. Passengers were relaxing into the journey, the crew confident in the schedule. But then came the signal – faint at first, just a murmur over the radio: trouble ahead. No details, only uncertainty.

This is how risk often emerges in projects. Not as a dramatic derailment, but as a subtle change in tone, a delay in a decision, a murky update from a supplier. And yet, these are the signals – the project’s own version of smoke on the horizon – that experienced managers learn to read and respond to.

When time is the immovable constraint – as it is with the wedding that starts at 3:00p.m., guests already en route – the project cannot afford delays. The response to emerging risk must be swift, informed, and proportional. Does the train pause and seek clarity? Divert and reroute? Can it gain time later by skipping an intermediate stop, or must it reallocate onboard resources to manage the uncertainty?

Projects – like journeys – are rarely linear. What separates success from failure is often not the absence of risk, but how early and effectively those risks are managed. The track ahead may be uncertain, but the signs are there for those who know where – and how – to look.

The lesson is simple, yet often overlooked: risk rarely arrives with fanfare. It whispers, it hints, it leaves subtle clues. And if no one listens, the train barrels onward – straight into trouble.

Here are some key takeaways that apply to any project:

1. Tune in Early: Projects, like trains, give off signals well before a breakdown. Missed deadlines, delayed approvals, or vague communication are the equivalent of a faint whistle in the distance. Train your team to notice when things feel “off”. The earlier uncertainty is detected, the more room there is to act.
2. Establish Tripwires: Every railway has signals that demand an immediate response. Projects need the same. Define clear thresholds that trigger a review or escalation. For example, if a task slips by more than two days, if a critical team member becomes unavailable, or if a decision lingers unresolved, it’s time to stop, review and take corrective action.
3. Embed Risk Awareness: Risk is not just the job of the project manager; it’s everyone’s responsibility. On a train, success depends on both the conductor and the kitchen staff alike. Likewise, in a project, every team member should understand what success looks like – and what might derail it.
4. Scenario Plan Early: Waiting until the train is stopped by a fallen tree is too late. Walk through potential disruptions in advance: identify alternate routes, backup resources, and contingency plans. Scenario planning isn’t pessimism; it’s resilience in action.
5. Don’t Delay the Detour: Once a risk materialises, it becomes an issue – and decisions must be made quickly. Delay only compounds the problem. Sometimes the safest course is a temporary diversion. Better a short detour than a catastrophic derailment.
6. Remember the Real Deadline: The true purpose wasn’t simply to run the train – it was to deliver the passengers to the wedding, on time. In projects, time, cost, and scope are important, but never forget the ultimate outcome. Keep sight of the destination, not just the timetable.

The takeaway message is simple: projects rarely derail without warning. Success depends on spotting the signals in time.

Next time on The Pieces Fit…

An overloaded train slows — and so does a project with scope creep…

Related: Accidental Odyssey